* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 61 65 71 74 67 61 61 61 62 65 68 70 72 72 V (KT) LAND 50 45 38 33 38 44 47 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 38 33 37 44 50 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 10 5 14 16 20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 270 319 5 14 352 349 12 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.7 30.2 30.1 30.3 29.2 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 166 172 171 171 172 155 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 158 172 164 161 166 145 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 12 8 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 66 68 70 74 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 18 20 19 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 23 13 17 14 19 45 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 39 26 28 41 33 58 56 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -5 -2 0 -8 -6 -12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 98 -29 -155 -58 55 231 155 -43 -246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.8 88.9 90.0 91.0 93.1 95.3 97.5 99.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 84 45 6 28 45 36 54 23 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -10. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 15. 21. 24. 17. 11. 11. 11. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.8 86.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 39.9% 25.9% 17.2% 11.5% 24.6% 25.5% 22.5% Logistic: 8.0% 45.7% 30.5% 18.5% 10.5% 24.7% 30.4% 36.6% Bayesian: 2.3% 22.4% 6.1% 0.8% 0.6% 9.5% 5.6% 50.6% Consensus: 6.9% 36.0% 20.8% 12.2% 7.5% 19.6% 20.5% 36.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 45 38 33 38 44 47 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 42 37 42 48 51 41 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 12HR AGO 50 47 46 41 46 52 55 45 38 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 51 54 44 37 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT