* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/30/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 47 44 38 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 47 44 38 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 48 45 38 32 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 8 9 5 13 13 17 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 18 355 343 353 281 277 258 237 222 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 24.9 24.3 24.1 23.8 22.7 22.0 21.4 21.5 21.4 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 113 106 105 101 89 81 74 74 73 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 57 54 50 46 42 39 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 24 9 -11 -23 -41 -30 -22 -14 -14 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 6 1 0 4 22 0 -7 8 -14 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -5 1 1 4 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1507 1465 1434 1414 1407 1408 1362 1347 1346 1356 1330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.5 24.5 25.9 27.0 27.9 28.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.0 126.5 127.1 127.7 129.1 130.3 131.3 132.1 132.7 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -26. -30. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -29. -35. -41. -50. -54. -58. -63. -66. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.2 125.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##