* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 43 39 35 28 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 43 39 35 28 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 44 40 36 30 26 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 8 7 8 10 12 7 10 8 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 1 0 1 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 346 314 298 257 247 269 225 228 246 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.8 23.3 23.1 22.6 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 96 94 89 87 84 82 82 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 58 55 52 49 48 45 40 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 13 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 31 19 27 38 34 28 16 15 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 7 1 9 14 -5 6 2 3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -3 -6 -9 0 -6 3 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 963 1005 1061 1139 1226 1345 1424 1506 1563 1616 1654 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.2 25.0 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.1 124.2 125.4 126.6 128.8 130.6 131.9 132.8 133.5 134.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 7 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -22. -26. -30. -35. -39. -44. -47. -50. -55. -59. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.9 122.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##