* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 47 43 36 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 47 43 36 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 47 43 36 30 26 23 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 6 9 12 7 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 346 334 297 294 258 240 234 230 255 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.2 23.9 23.4 23.1 22.7 22.4 22.4 22.2 22.3 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 105 102 97 94 89 85 84 81 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 58 55 53 49 48 43 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 16 14 13 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 56 54 35 20 37 30 32 24 23 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 28 5 5 12 0 -5 1 -8 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -3 -3 -8 1 -1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 974 994 1027 1077 1137 1300 1375 1439 1499 1571 1653 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.5 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.2 123.2 124.3 125.3 127.5 129.3 130.7 131.8 132.8 133.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -19. -25. -30. -36. -40. -44. -47. -50. -54. -57. -60. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.1 121.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 340.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##