* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 48 48 44 39 34 29 26 24 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 48 48 44 39 34 29 26 24 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 46 42 37 31 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 12 9 10 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 1 3 1 -3 0 -1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 52 51 62 66 46 12 17 2 340 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.2 24.1 23.3 22.3 21.5 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 127 126 116 105 96 85 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 65 65 60 58 57 51 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 17 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 63 64 68 67 43 13 -1 4 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 8 -6 1 6 2 -6 1 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1716 1694 1673 1636 1602 1481 1409 1411 1357 1333 1350 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.3 16.9 18.9 21.2 23.6 25.5 26.9 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.0 125.0 125.1 125.2 125.8 126.9 128.3 129.7 131.0 132.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 12 13 13 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. -26. -28. -30. -33. -35. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 124.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 14.9% 14.5% 10.4% 7.6% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.2% 4.9% 3.5% 2.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##