* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 51 48 45 38 32 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 51 48 45 38 32 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 51 48 44 37 32 28 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 9 8 7 5 0 5 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 347 356 347 315 284 233 306 174 212 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.0 24.2 23.9 23.4 22.7 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.9 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 105 102 97 90 88 83 80 78 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 61 58 52 49 47 46 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 16 15 13 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 51 51 35 34 42 34 26 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 29 22 -7 -4 11 0 5 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -4 -3 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 958 980 994 1027 1072 1211 1337 1382 1432 1452 1482 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 24.1 24.9 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.3 122.2 123.2 124.2 126.4 128.5 130.1 131.3 132.0 132.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 7 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -29. -35. -40. -44. -47. -50. -54. -56. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##