* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 53 55 57 59 59 60 57 54 50 46 41 40 39 40 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 53 55 57 59 59 60 57 54 50 46 41 40 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 55 57 59 59 57 53 47 41 35 31 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 18 17 15 15 19 14 10 5 8 11 10 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 3 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 94 66 61 61 56 60 51 62 24 32 324 260 256 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.0 24.5 23.3 22.2 22.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 139 139 139 138 135 134 123 109 97 85 91 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 64 63 63 66 67 68 67 61 53 43 39 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 17 19 19 20 19 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 102 97 100 101 104 110 95 80 49 30 57 47 58 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 35 34 39 41 48 53 38 17 -4 8 -14 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 6 -1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1622 1660 1699 1726 1754 1778 1749 1676 1600 1496 1458 1531 1504 1796 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.8 17.0 18.7 20.7 22.8 25.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.0 124.4 124.7 125.0 125.4 125.4 125.2 125.3 125.8 127.1 129.2 131.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 1 3 5 8 10 13 14 12 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 13 14 15 12 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -10. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 123.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 22.1% 14.5% 13.9% 10.0% 15.3% 13.3% 11.5% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 8.0% 5.0% 4.7% 3.4% 5.2% 4.5% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##