* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 92 92 91 87 86 85 82 78 72 65 55 44 36 26 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 92 92 91 87 86 85 82 78 72 65 55 44 36 26 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 90 89 86 82 79 73 68 63 57 51 44 38 33 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 17 17 18 13 12 12 11 7 4 1 5 8 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 2 -2 0 -1 5 3 SHEAR DIR 351 353 354 350 356 350 5 347 351 342 321 317 151 298 282 320 325 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.1 24.9 24.6 24.5 22.5 22.0 20.9 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 143 139 137 130 125 126 124 111 108 108 87 81 71 61 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 74 75 73 72 68 66 63 59 50 38 32 27 33 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 26 26 27 30 31 30 30 29 27 22 19 16 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -6 6 28 56 70 95 118 127 142 164 170 147 107 87 48 200 MB DIV 26 36 59 51 40 70 29 37 38 30 13 28 -16 -29 -23 -35 -41 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -3 -7 -7 -8 -2 -7 -8 -5 -4 -3 1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 682 735 741 763 801 899 966 1054 1174 1268 1377 1486 1616 1367 1371 973 878 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.6 112.6 113.7 114.7 116.7 118.5 120.3 122.1 124.0 125.8 127.5 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 10 11 9 11 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 9 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. -37. -41. -47. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 5. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -35. -46. -54. -64. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.24 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 15.9% 13.5% 9.7% 7.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 5.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 7.2% 4.9% 3.5% 2.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##