* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 54 52 49 49 50 54 57 59 57 53 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 54 52 49 49 50 54 57 59 57 53 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 57 54 49 45 45 46 48 49 48 47 46 43 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 16 16 13 8 14 14 12 14 14 14 11 8 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 3 1 1 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 170 176 164 160 156 136 126 72 92 83 60 39 80 87 171 182 193 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 25.4 24.5 23.5 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 138 139 140 138 137 134 133 130 130 129 128 120 109 97 92 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 61 62 63 68 67 72 71 73 72 73 57 52 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 16 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -21 -18 -6 12 86 122 119 120 115 125 123 116 127 120 108 108 200 MB DIV -9 -7 -4 -11 -8 19 30 23 70 84 45 22 35 4 -19 -5 -23 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 3 4 3 1 2 3 5 5 -4 -1 0 -3 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1213 1252 1284 1326 1370 1456 1514 1565 1570 1521 1460 1374 1290 1527 1708 1808 1830 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.7 15.4 16.3 17.5 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.9 119.3 119.9 120.4 121.3 121.9 122.5 122.8 122.9 123.0 123.0 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 9 18 14 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -10. -6. -3. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.4 118.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 18.7% 15.5% 10.9% 10.0% 11.9% 9.8% 9.4% Logistic: 1.7% 3.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 7.7% 5.6% 3.9% 3.4% 4.3% 3.5% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##