* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 37 35 30 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 37 35 30 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 37 35 31 27 23 20 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 10 13 18 23 27 30 23 7 12 9 8 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -5 0 9 3 5 6 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 211 256 270 273 297 294 304 315 8 130 146 153 183 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.7 25.3 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.3 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 126 126 124 119 115 121 123 125 126 128 131 138 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 46 45 44 39 36 30 27 27 26 25 30 29 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -6 -1 2 -4 19 17 34 30 29 15 17 19 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 10 21 24 0 -19 -20 -12 -45 -48 -51 -32 -30 -45 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2118 2033 1949 1864 1780 1622 1464 1324 1182 1060 946 864 789 614 652 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.3 17.1 16.7 16.2 15.7 15.2 14.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.1 136.8 137.5 138.2 139.6 141.1 142.5 144.0 145.4 146.8 148.0 149.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 13 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 16 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -20. -26. -28. -27. -26. -24. -22. -19. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 135.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 298.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##