* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 71 78 86 98 104 102 98 94 91 86 81 76 68 63 57 V (KT) LAND 55 62 71 78 86 98 104 102 98 94 91 86 81 76 68 63 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 69 75 81 92 102 106 102 93 85 77 70 63 57 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 4 7 2 7 13 10 14 14 9 6 7 7 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 -1 -4 -1 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 122 160 160 107 110 1 344 20 354 341 325 350 354 355 264 307 312 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.0 24.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 149 150 153 155 150 151 145 137 132 127 124 124 111 109 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.5 -50.3 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 77 76 76 76 75 77 78 78 74 72 70 63 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 20 20 21 22 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 33 30 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -18 -25 -19 -14 -25 -5 5 26 41 68 78 117 126 157 115 120 200 MB DIV 68 46 26 52 80 44 29 46 58 71 66 68 67 17 24 38 0 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 -4 -7 -2 -3 -8 -11 -8 -10 -2 -10 -5 LAND (KM) 493 487 474 480 490 510 596 696 722 806 894 968 1076 1147 1267 1024 1043 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.9 104.6 105.3 106.0 107.6 109.5 111.5 113.5 115.5 117.4 119.1 120.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 7 9 6 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 29 20 16 20 28 17 14 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 23. 22. 19. 14. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 23. 31. 43. 49. 47. 43. 39. 36. 31. 26. 21. 13. 8. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.4 103.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 12.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 12.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -9.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.5% 62.6% 57.5% 52.2% 32.6% 54.6% 34.2% 15.8% Logistic: 26.5% 51.7% 33.2% 21.8% 8.9% 27.0% 21.7% 12.2% Bayesian: 10.4% 65.9% 58.1% 40.3% 10.9% 41.6% 22.9% 1.1% Consensus: 25.1% 60.0% 49.6% 38.1% 17.5% 41.0% 26.3% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##