* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 44 39 33 27 22 17 16 16 17 18 18 18 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 44 39 33 27 22 17 16 16 17 18 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 43 40 36 32 29 25 22 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 7 5 10 13 18 25 32 30 20 11 12 17 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 0 8 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 317 322 304 290 236 200 261 280 295 303 310 309 289 229 207 214 258 SST (C) 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.5 26.5 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 130 133 135 131 128 129 127 127 133 136 134 126 129 134 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 51 48 45 44 41 38 34 29 24 24 26 29 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 14 14 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 13 3 4 7 0 5 -5 -8 -13 -9 4 18 24 23 22 200 MB DIV -19 -11 10 25 31 18 9 0 -1 -18 -35 -52 -56 -40 -26 -28 -23 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -3 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 -1 0 -3 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2131 2214 2299 2372 2285 2111 1964 1815 1679 1550 1430 1308 1185 933 824 741 677 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.3 16.0 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.8 131.9 132.9 133.9 135.5 136.8 138.1 139.3 140.5 141.7 143.0 144.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 10 11 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 1 3 5 4 4 4 2 2 6 9 5 0 2 4 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -28. -29. -29. -28. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 129.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.56 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 24.3% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 26.4% 15.3% 6.7% 3.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 16.9% 12.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##