* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 61 74 86 94 98 102 97 96 92 87 78 71 61 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 61 74 86 94 98 102 97 96 92 87 78 71 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 65 78 90 99 100 94 87 80 72 61 50 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 1 3 2 1 3 6 8 10 13 15 14 10 9 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -5 0 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 147 176 148 168 198 93 350 1 2 358 358 356 351 337 330 289 256 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.2 24.9 22.9 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 159 154 151 150 153 152 151 149 143 135 131 125 125 113 92 81 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -51.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.8 -49.9 -50.6 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 77 78 78 76 78 76 77 75 77 76 76 79 72 63 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 15 18 21 24 27 29 33 32 35 36 37 32 29 24 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -9 -14 -20 -22 -5 -16 -6 14 44 57 63 70 91 94 98 96 200 MB DIV 29 45 74 69 63 101 60 77 76 72 78 91 72 79 27 32 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -8 -4 -8 -11 -12 -5 -9 0 1 LAND (KM) 526 521 519 504 498 510 538 634 688 731 813 880 968 1008 1018 988 1168 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.7 103.5 104.3 105.1 106.6 108.3 110.1 112.0 114.0 115.9 117.6 119.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 6 9 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 48 38 27 18 23 26 17 12 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 27. 25. 27. 26. 24. 17. 13. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 34. 46. 54. 58. 62. 57. 56. 52. 47. 38. 31. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.5 101.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 10.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.4 18.9 to 1.4 1.00 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 45.7% 37.6% 26.0% 18.4% 46.6% 50.5% 49.2% Logistic: 11.7% 49.6% 33.4% 18.3% 5.6% 23.0% 27.9% 20.3% Bayesian: 3.4% 20.2% 18.0% 5.2% 2.5% 4.2% 6.5% 12.3% Consensus: 10.1% 38.5% 29.6% 16.5% 8.8% 24.6% 28.3% 27.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##