* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 49 55 68 79 86 91 95 94 95 93 91 83 78 69 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 49 55 68 79 86 91 95 94 95 93 91 83 78 69 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 48 57 68 80 92 100 100 95 90 83 73 61 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 1 1 3 2 3 6 5 7 8 7 7 9 6 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 306 301 290 177 202 205 116 360 33 2 350 360 359 354 308 265 245 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.0 23.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 160 154 151 152 155 150 151 147 140 134 129 127 114 95 85 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 78 79 78 76 76 74 74 73 75 75 77 70 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 21 23 25 27 31 31 33 34 35 31 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 -1 -1 -5 0 -5 1 18 25 32 41 48 53 63 77 100 200 MB DIV 51 44 54 89 83 99 76 62 49 67 45 59 59 43 51 36 44 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -2 -5 -10 -10 -9 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 506 498 490 491 472 479 510 588 680 687 725 779 810 934 1012 1011 1179 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.8 102.7 103.5 104.3 105.8 107.6 109.4 111.3 113.0 114.6 116.2 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 10 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 44 46 36 23 18 28 17 16 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 23. 24. 23. 22. 16. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 33. 44. 51. 56. 60. 59. 60. 58. 56. 48. 43. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.3 101.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.99 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 45.1% 36.0% 25.4% 17.5% 42.7% 51.5% 52.6% Logistic: 15.2% 59.3% 43.1% 26.4% 7.7% 30.9% 24.2% 24.6% Bayesian: 2.4% 44.9% 20.4% 5.5% 5.6% 18.3% 21.4% 14.3% Consensus: 10.7% 49.8% 33.1% 19.1% 10.2% 30.6% 32.4% 30.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##