* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 42 39 37 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 42 39 37 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 41 37 34 30 27 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 6 9 14 16 27 32 35 31 9 1 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -7 -6 -3 2 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 235 265 278 288 287 253 204 246 279 286 298 301 301 312 216 146 142 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.2 25.6 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 137 130 130 132 126 124 126 123 123 125 117 135 135 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 57 55 49 46 42 39 34 33 29 28 32 34 33 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 23 22 22 9 12 8 17 1 12 6 15 4 15 23 23 200 MB DIV 25 4 -15 -1 24 48 1 -12 -8 -13 -47 -23 -54 -30 -41 -23 -14 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 -3 -5 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1912 2004 2091 2179 2268 2297 2129 1970 1819 1658 1485 1309 1123 1184 1136 1084 1045 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.3 17.3 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.1 128.3 129.5 130.7 131.8 133.7 135.2 136.6 137.9 139.3 140.9 142.6 144.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 7 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 5 1 1 3 1 1 3 0 0 1 0 6 7 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -17. -22. -27. -32. -35. -33. -30. -29. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 127.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.69 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 17.5% 17.0% 12.5% 8.6% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 8.3% 4.2% 1.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.6% 7.1% 4.7% 3.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##