* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 41 39 37 34 29 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 41 39 37 34 29 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 42 41 37 34 32 29 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 8 5 6 2 10 13 18 24 30 32 12 7 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 2 -1 -5 -5 -3 0 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 229 250 278 299 301 313 192 240 269 284 296 301 298 308 290 130 154 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.6 24.8 24.7 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 140 135 133 131 121 122 122 118 110 110 123 121 123 125 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 56 59 54 49 45 40 38 33 29 24 31 30 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 15 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 3 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 30 23 24 15 7 14 17 14 2 4 2 8 8 18 19 200 MB DIV 39 31 9 -10 -1 26 6 -14 -9 -12 -25 -29 -42 -46 -25 -18 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -2 0 -1 -3 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1797 1897 1989 2068 2151 2286 2264 2102 1943 1786 1631 1476 1314 1095 941 894 807 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.3 130.4 132.3 133.9 135.3 136.7 138.1 139.5 140.9 142.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 10 12 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 10 8 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -30. -34. -35. -33. -30. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 125.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 18.2% 17.8% 13.2% 9.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.8% 6.3% 4.5% 3.1% 0.1% 4.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##