* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 44 44 45 44 42 42 38 35 33 30 26 23 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 44 44 45 44 42 42 38 35 33 30 26 23 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 40 37 35 33 32 31 29 27 25 23 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 8 7 5 2 3 8 12 12 16 20 28 33 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 1 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -1 -4 -3 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 242 247 251 232 234 275 281 299 212 242 242 261 255 275 290 291 287 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.3 26.7 26.8 26.0 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.1 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 141 137 137 130 131 122 117 118 117 112 109 112 114 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 58 56 55 53 49 44 39 37 34 31 32 28 24 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 17 17 18 16 14 14 13 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 40 41 42 36 33 21 23 20 22 1 12 9 30 32 46 200 MB DIV 0 16 33 51 49 15 45 27 0 9 -9 -3 -18 -11 -48 -36 -19 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -6 0 2 4 1 1 0 -1 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1507 1583 1663 1754 1845 2004 2161 2278 2188 2017 1869 1725 1592 1454 1304 1273 1123 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.6 124.7 125.9 127.0 129.3 131.3 132.9 134.4 135.9 137.2 138.5 139.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 5 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 15 12 7 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -22. -27. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 21.3% 14.1% 13.3% 9.7% 16.2% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.3% 5.3% 4.6% 3.4% 5.5% 5.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##