* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 34 33 30 29 26 27 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 34 33 30 29 26 27 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 32 30 27 26 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 28 23 25 28 36 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 3 1 -3 2 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 230 219 214 212 215 215 215 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 116 117 118 122 127 129 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 40 40 38 39 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 14 16 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 24 27 24 20 9 6 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 6 6 20 33 13 6 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 8 10 6 6 7 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1223 1119 1017 916 815 609 384 215 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.2 144.2 145.1 146.0 147.0 149.0 151.4 153.9 156.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -27. -29. -30. -31. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -14. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -27. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.5 143.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##