* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 35 34 31 28 28 28 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 35 34 31 28 28 28 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 36 34 30 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 27 23 25 32 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 4 4 -1 0 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 228 229 219 214 215 205 216 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.5 26.1 26.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 116 117 116 117 118 125 128 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 45 43 40 39 38 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 14 15 15 15 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 36 24 26 23 19 9 5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 9 13 14 17 30 12 21 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 4 7 6 6 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1339 1236 1134 1032 931 744 536 342 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.1 143.1 144.0 145.0 145.9 147.7 149.8 152.1 154.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. -30. -31. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -17. -17. -17. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. -31. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.4 142.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##