* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 21 22 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 21 22 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 30 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 18 17 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 164 167 160 144 153 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 137 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 66 65 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 25 39 47 56 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -23 -23 -11 4 22 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1735 1793 1851 1902 1952 2013 2075 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.1 124.5 124.8 125.1 125.7 126.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 17 22 25 29 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 123.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.9% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##