* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 36 34 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 36 34 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 40 35 32 28 25 23 22 19 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 25 26 28 28 27 34 35 35 29 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 3 0 5 -2 3 3 7 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 231 224 227 226 211 214 205 215 219 235 242 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 111 114 117 118 119 122 124 129 132 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -56.0 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 49 46 40 37 34 34 35 37 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 16 16 15 16 15 16 14 13 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 49 45 32 29 32 29 18 7 0 4 -20 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -4 22 22 3 17 24 15 7 32 11 -2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 9 8 4 3 3 6 7 10 3 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1574 1476 1378 1282 1185 1004 817 632 451 284 166 131 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.8 141.7 142.6 143.5 145.2 147.0 148.9 151.0 153.5 156.3 159.3 162.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -28. -29. -29. -30. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -7. -9. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -16. -22. -26. -32. -35. -41. -43. -47. -45. -48. -49. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 139.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##