* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 28 30 31 31 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 28 30 31 31 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 18 20 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 -5 -6 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 213 158 149 149 136 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 135 135 135 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 72 71 69 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 16 29 42 59 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -12 -5 4 4 14 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 3 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1617 1668 1719 1763 1807 1855 1904 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.5 13.1 12.8 12.4 12.0 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.4 122.7 123.0 123.2 123.4 123.6 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 15 18 24 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 122.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.4% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 7.0% 4.2% 0.5% 0.2% 3.2% 3.5% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##