* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 46 53 56 56 57 56 54 54 50 51 51 49 48 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 46 53 56 56 57 56 54 54 50 51 51 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 38 41 44 44 44 43 42 42 41 39 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 10 7 8 13 12 7 3 3 7 6 0 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 93 90 97 116 132 211 223 225 202 336 311 282 296 110 174 214 221 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.1 26.6 26.2 26.3 25.1 25.3 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 143 144 145 142 139 134 125 130 125 125 113 114 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 76 74 66 63 56 54 50 48 46 44 40 37 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 18 18 20 20 20 21 21 20 21 19 18 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 36 40 45 33 70 69 81 69 60 50 49 42 35 15 18 200 MB DIV 35 32 30 35 31 26 19 30 23 -8 -7 -7 1 -12 -14 -3 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 3 6 0 -1 -3 -3 1 2 4 6 4 1 LAND (KM) 1088 1116 1154 1204 1261 1381 1544 1738 1939 2128 2304 2181 1971 2010 1869 1809 1659 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.3 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.4 118.4 120.7 123.2 125.7 128.2 130.6 132.7 134.7 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 7 7 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 22 26 22 16 10 13 5 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 18. 21. 21. 22. 21. 19. 19. 15. 16. 16. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 114.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 18.0% 17.1% 12.4% 9.2% 14.9% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 14.8% 4.3% 2.4% 1.9% 3.7% 3.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 11.8% 7.3% 5.0% 3.8% 6.4% 6.0% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##