* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 37 37 37 38 39 40 41 41 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 37 37 37 38 39 40 41 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 14 8 19 15 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 2 -3 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 280 269 256 217 159 152 135 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 141 140 138 137 138 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 74 74 71 68 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -62 -47 -31 0 45 71 84 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -11 2 9 25 19 12 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 3 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1463 1506 1551 1593 1635 1719 1755 1782 1802 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.4 121.8 122.1 122.4 123.0 123.4 123.9 124.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 19 17 15 15 17 19 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 121.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.14 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.1% 10.9% 7.6% 0.0% 8.9% 9.7% 12.3% Logistic: 0.4% 5.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.9% 4.0% 2.7% 0.1% 3.2% 3.4% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##