* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 20 18 15 12 22 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 2 1 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 293 284 276 260 174 163 156 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 144 142 139 137 137 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 70 72 74 73 70 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -48 -53 -36 -15 30 55 66 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -2 -6 6 6 0 -3 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1413 1456 1500 1541 1582 1673 1724 1760 1780 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.9 121.3 121.7 122.0 122.7 123.2 123.7 124.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 18 16 15 17 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 120.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 11.5% Logistic: 0.5% 3.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 0.2% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##