* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 55 63 65 61 58 50 47 42 41 41 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 55 63 65 61 58 50 47 42 41 41 41 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 50 55 57 54 49 43 38 35 33 32 30 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 8 8 9 16 18 17 15 9 7 5 9 11 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -2 1 0 3 4 -4 -3 -3 1 -2 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 325 337 130 156 168 170 196 216 220 230 232 264 266 243 209 214 225 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.3 27.7 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.9 26.2 25.8 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 147 146 148 143 136 131 131 127 127 134 127 123 128 125 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 77 75 74 69 62 55 50 47 44 43 39 37 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 21 21 20 20 18 18 16 16 15 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 1 11 23 44 63 69 91 89 104 78 56 43 54 57 54 200 MB DIV 28 18 10 16 23 52 34 18 25 26 13 -21 -4 3 -6 0 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 7 9 9 5 0 -2 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 830 896 965 980 1002 1087 1221 1382 1580 1770 1965 2167 2365 2038 1827 1430 1203 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.6 16.7 16.4 15.9 15.3 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.6 112.5 113.6 114.6 116.9 119.6 122.3 124.8 127.0 129.1 131.1 133.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 14 13 11 10 11 10 12 13 14 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 18 13 15 30 13 4 4 4 1 1 3 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 7. 7. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 25. 21. 18. 10. 7. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 22.7% 22.1% 16.9% 12.1% 19.0% 17.0% 15.1% Logistic: 5.5% 18.7% 7.9% 4.6% 1.7% 3.9% 0.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 15.4% 10.2% 7.2% 4.7% 7.8% 6.2% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##