* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 82 75 71 57 48 39 34 30 25 23 22 22 22 22 24 V (KT) LAND 90 87 82 75 71 57 48 39 34 30 25 23 22 22 22 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 78 71 63 52 44 38 32 28 24 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 10 11 13 16 22 25 27 34 30 27 22 26 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 2 1 2 1 3 2 3 1 4 2 6 1 8 2 SHEAR DIR 243 248 236 247 270 285 263 241 240 219 218 214 221 227 225 237 244 SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.4 25.5 26.0 26.5 26.4 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 118 116 116 116 114 114 115 118 117 118 124 131 129 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.8 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 65 64 60 55 51 47 44 41 37 37 34 36 36 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 23 22 23 20 20 19 18 17 16 17 17 16 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 56 57 63 62 39 30 7 11 0 3 2 -4 4 -7 -2 200 MB DIV 35 53 41 20 7 6 -8 0 11 17 10 17 -3 32 5 3 4 700-850 TADV 7 6 8 2 0 -2 1 8 3 3 8 5 6 6 7 3 6 LAND (KM) 2281 2214 2147 2072 1998 1821 1646 1473 1291 1110 910 711 504 233 298 237 272 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.6 134.2 134.7 135.4 136.0 137.6 139.2 140.8 142.5 144.2 146.1 148.0 150.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. -38. -40. -41. -43. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -15. -19. -33. -42. -51. -56. -60. -65. -67. -68. -68. -68. -68. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.8 133.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 516.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##