* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052017 07/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 49 51 55 58 61 63 66 69 71 72 75 76 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 45 49 51 55 58 61 63 66 69 71 72 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 14 16 17 12 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 273 248 256 270 267 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 150 144 143 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 152 150 144 143 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 10 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 60 60 60 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 32 31 30 38 43 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 1 28 57 46 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -6 -11 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 441 239 101 133 190 72 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 59.0 60.9 63.0 65.0 69.2 73.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 53 34 22 18 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.4 57.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052017 DON 07/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.60 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.6% 9.8% 6.5% 5.9% 8.9% 10.1% 12.8% Logistic: 4.3% 13.5% 7.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.0% 2.6% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 2.4% Consensus: 3.5% 11.4% 6.2% 2.8% 2.2% 3.8% 4.3% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052017 DON 07/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052017 DON 07/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 45 49 51 55 58 61 63 66 69 71 72 75 76 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 43 47 49 53 56 59 61 64 67 69 70 73 74 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 43 45 49 52 55 57 60 63 65 66 69 70 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 38 42 45 48 50 53 56 58 59 62 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT