* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 78 72 68 58 51 45 41 35 30 26 21 18 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 83 78 72 68 58 51 45 41 35 30 26 21 18 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 81 73 66 60 49 43 37 33 28 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 5 9 8 10 15 16 24 29 36 34 31 29 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 6 8 5 1 2 4 10 7 7 3 5 4 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 214 236 241 238 207 246 255 261 239 237 229 234 230 243 253 264 260 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.8 26.5 26.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 126 121 117 116 116 114 115 114 117 116 117 124 132 134 140 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.7 -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 61 60 59 55 52 48 48 45 40 37 36 34 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 22 23 21 21 20 19 17 16 15 12 10 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 32 35 49 59 73 67 44 35 23 19 21 12 3 -10 -13 -3 200 MB DIV 48 40 25 41 49 35 13 -23 -8 6 17 -3 5 6 21 0 -17 700-850 TADV 3 7 5 5 6 1 3 0 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -9 -4 LAND (KM) 2295 2312 2266 2200 2134 1986 1832 1670 1507 1346 1185 1005 836 554 116 78 209 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.5 133.1 133.7 134.3 134.8 136.1 137.5 139.0 140.5 142.0 143.5 145.2 146.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 18 19 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -35. -38. -40. -41. -43. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -22. -32. -39. -45. -49. -55. -60. -64. -69. -72. -74. -76. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 132.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 543.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##