* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 79 85 96 101 103 104 102 101 100 95 90 83 78 73 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 79 85 96 101 103 104 102 101 100 95 90 83 78 73 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 69 75 80 89 96 102 108 109 105 99 90 80 72 66 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 3 4 5 5 2 4 3 3 5 2 5 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 8 9 9 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 24 358 3 360 342 102 6 31 354 347 1 348 4 357 306 320 313 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 160 156 152 148 148 150 150 148 144 141 140 131 123 121 119 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 74 72 73 71 71 69 71 68 64 61 59 49 43 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 18 18 19 21 23 26 28 30 33 32 30 28 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 18 19 21 32 25 16 11 8 16 27 39 70 77 61 67 200 MB DIV 54 73 85 74 46 101 71 90 92 113 66 99 30 49 16 18 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -6 -4 -6 -5 -3 0 4 5 6 7 LAND (KM) 1330 1382 1437 1502 1571 1717 1856 1975 2096 2228 2332 2405 2189 1887 1736 1705 1505 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.0 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.5 116.4 117.4 118.3 120.3 122.5 124.7 126.9 129.1 131.1 133.0 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 12 10 5 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 26 22 19 25 44 51 30 13 10 7 7 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 20. 17. 13. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 30. 41. 46. 48. 49. 47. 46. 45. 40. 35. 28. 23. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.7 114.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 16.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 14.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 9.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 15.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 11.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -10.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 1.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 87% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 77% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.7% 86.7% 79.0% 69.3% 55.3% 77.2% 65.9% 47.0% Logistic: 56.6% 79.7% 72.1% 65.5% 37.7% 63.6% 40.6% 29.5% Bayesian: 65.8% 89.0% 80.5% 73.0% 57.9% 83.6% 64.2% 1.8% Consensus: 57.7% 85.1% 77.2% 69.3% 50.3% 74.8% 56.9% 26.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##