* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 62 66 75 83 90 97 98 98 99 98 95 90 86 81 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 62 66 75 83 90 97 98 98 99 98 95 90 86 81 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 63 71 80 90 99 103 103 98 93 86 78 73 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 5 6 5 6 4 2 6 5 3 4 5 1 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 1 5 2 4 5 4 SHEAR DIR 52 27 25 44 39 16 23 36 37 340 299 359 346 353 347 334 310 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 29.9 29.4 29.0 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.9 28.0 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 166 164 159 155 149 148 151 149 149 148 143 145 133 127 124 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 74 73 71 69 70 70 68 65 60 58 49 47 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 16 16 18 20 23 25 27 29 30 31 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 13 17 17 32 36 25 17 9 17 18 41 63 73 63 78 200 MB DIV 52 55 68 90 70 61 75 75 84 92 76 77 81 57 53 25 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -7 -6 -9 -4 -3 0 4 7 8 LAND (KM) 1257 1341 1389 1448 1511 1643 1798 1935 2067 2207 2338 2447 2249 1971 1812 1787 1596 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.6 115.6 116.6 117.6 119.6 121.8 124.0 126.2 128.4 130.5 132.5 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 12 10 5 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 29 25 21 19 38 54 41 16 13 9 9 5 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 14. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 21. 30. 38. 45. 52. 53. 53. 54. 53. 50. 45. 41. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.7 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 13.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.81 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 62.5% 49.9% 36.4% 22.4% 50.4% 63.4% 53.4% Logistic: 26.4% 62.2% 47.6% 36.4% 14.7% 44.2% 36.7% 31.6% Bayesian: 23.2% 74.9% 53.6% 32.1% 7.5% 55.1% 64.2% 6.4% Consensus: 23.2% 66.5% 50.4% 35.0% 14.9% 49.9% 54.8% 30.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##