* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 58 65 75 84 90 95 95 98 101 100 95 91 88 85 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 58 65 75 84 90 95 95 98 101 100 95 91 88 85 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 60 70 80 90 95 101 105 107 102 93 81 73 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 0 -2 0 1 -3 -3 -7 -2 3 4 9 8 7 SHEAR DIR 63 50 26 37 54 3 84 24 70 343 330 329 317 307 27 17 351 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 159 157 154 153 149 149 152 154 153 148 143 134 129 126 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 71 72 72 71 71 72 71 70 66 63 55 58 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 17 19 21 22 22 26 29 31 30 30 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 9 13 15 18 31 24 15 7 6 15 30 55 56 56 74 200 MB DIV 35 43 51 76 85 48 79 70 84 67 118 100 115 69 90 51 46 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -1 1 1 6 8 LAND (KM) 1164 1242 1323 1369 1423 1546 1686 1845 1986 2143 2291 2425 2311 2059 1923 1849 1662 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.5 116.5 118.5 120.6 122.9 125.1 127.4 129.6 131.9 134.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 24 24 23 20 29 42 47 30 16 11 7 6 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 13. 13. 17. 21. 21. 18. 16. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 25. 35. 44. 50. 55. 55. 58. 61. 60. 55. 51. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.9 112.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 50.3% 35.7% 24.8% 16.8% 41.3% 52.5% 56.2% Logistic: 17.4% 59.3% 44.1% 35.3% 14.6% 51.1% 49.8% 45.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 49.7% 26.4% 11.0% 5.6% 46.9% 44.1% 11.0% Consensus: 11.4% 53.1% 35.4% 23.7% 12.3% 46.5% 48.8% 37.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##