* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 57 65 73 79 85 87 91 91 89 88 86 83 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 49 57 65 73 79 85 87 91 91 89 88 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 54 60 66 71 77 84 88 90 88 82 72 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 7 8 7 9 7 3 1 5 1 3 4 6 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 1 2 2 -1 0 1 -2 -5 -7 0 4 8 9 8 SHEAR DIR 66 59 53 37 8 10 17 23 331 13 308 318 301 262 291 339 183 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 159 159 157 153 150 147 152 152 153 149 142 139 134 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 67 65 58 56 57 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 15 16 16 18 19 21 23 26 27 28 29 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 2 3 7 12 24 29 16 6 3 9 15 36 48 61 66 200 MB DIV 21 30 33 40 58 67 82 66 59 89 73 79 82 77 86 77 52 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 0 -2 -5 -6 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 5 5 8 LAND (KM) 1098 1164 1234 1314 1360 1472 1617 1797 1947 2089 2249 2396 2339 2227 2053 2016 1856 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.6 113.5 114.5 115.4 117.4 119.6 122.0 124.3 126.6 129.0 131.4 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 12 12 8 7 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 26 24 24 22 19 39 52 39 17 13 8 7 7 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 18. 17. 17. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 38. 44. 50. 52. 56. 56. 54. 53. 51. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 21.9% 21.2% 16.2% 0.0% 19.1% 20.5% 43.6% Logistic: 3.4% 20.3% 9.8% 5.5% 2.4% 14.0% 16.9% 26.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 15.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.7% 5.1% 10.1% 13.3% Consensus: 4.7% 19.3% 11.3% 7.4% 1.0% 12.7% 15.9% 27.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##