* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062017 07/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 51 61 72 79 84 87 92 93 92 92 90 86 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 51 61 72 79 84 87 92 93 92 92 90 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 50 58 65 71 77 83 89 91 87 77 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 10 8 5 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 -7 -6 -3 5 5 9 4 SHEAR DIR 73 62 57 55 42 49 15 31 333 26 344 343 324 324 291 219 86 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 157 159 158 153 152 148 151 152 153 151 146 142 133 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 70 72 71 69 69 69 68 66 64 60 55 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 17 19 20 22 23 26 28 29 31 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR -2 7 7 3 3 12 18 26 27 19 10 14 20 29 55 57 83 200 MB DIV 11 13 20 27 32 66 67 80 63 90 80 87 75 93 79 86 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 0 4 1 LAND (KM) 1048 1111 1179 1259 1324 1419 1553 1721 1873 2027 2200 2368 2437 2184 1972 2048 1876 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.0 112.9 113.9 114.8 116.8 118.9 121.2 123.6 126.0 128.4 130.8 133.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 28 24 24 23 19 34 47 39 19 14 9 9 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 20. 21. 19. 20. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 42. 49. 54. 57. 62. 63. 62. 62. 60. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 111.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 18.6% 17.9% 13.4% 0.0% 16.6% 17.1% 41.6% Logistic: 2.3% 16.7% 6.3% 3.1% 2.4% 8.0% 10.2% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 4.4% 1.6% Consensus: 3.6% 14.0% 8.2% 5.5% 0.8% 8.5% 10.6% 21.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##