* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062017 07/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 64 74 79 80 85 88 90 94 94 96 93 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 64 74 79 80 85 88 90 94 94 96 93 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 47 56 65 71 75 79 84 87 90 94 90 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 10 7 5 3 10 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -2 -3 -1 2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 5 5 SHEAR DIR 55 63 54 52 53 41 46 7 345 333 330 324 315 347 59 85 167 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 157 158 153 153 152 147 153 153 152 144 142 136 130 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 70 69 70 65 66 65 64 63 61 59 57 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 13 15 16 17 20 22 24 27 29 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -4 6 7 3 15 24 26 32 25 23 27 32 35 52 48 80 200 MB DIV 16 17 15 15 17 47 71 61 70 60 81 78 108 85 80 88 92 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 987 1050 1118 1191 1270 1358 1470 1619 1780 1972 2193 2413 2338 2244 2014 2025 1825 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.3 112.2 113.2 114.2 116.2 118.3 120.6 123.0 125.7 128.5 131.3 134.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 9 7 6 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 29 25 24 25 22 25 31 36 18 14 9 9 11 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 16. 18. 18. 20. 20. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 34. 44. 49. 50. 55. 58. 60. 64. 64. 66. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 18.9% 18.3% 13.9% 0.0% 16.2% 16.4% 33.9% Logistic: 3.9% 21.6% 8.1% 4.6% 3.7% 9.3% 20.1% 34.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 13.5% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% 3.3% 3.8% 2.0% Consensus: 4.6% 18.0% 9.1% 6.2% 1.5% 9.6% 13.4% 23.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 SIX 07/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##