* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 31 28 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 31 28 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 32 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 9 12 13 11 13 15 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 245 247 238 244 243 248 217 213 206 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.7 23.9 22.6 21.6 21.3 21.8 21.5 21.4 21.3 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 101 87 77 73 78 75 73 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 50 49 48 43 41 36 35 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 14 13 11 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 49 56 44 23 8 -11 -19 -29 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -12 -19 -15 -7 -18 0 4 2 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 0 2 0 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 814 821 807 790 784 801 856 884 907 876 863 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.6 25.7 26.7 27.5 28.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.7 121.2 122.2 123.3 124.2 125.0 125.7 126.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -25. -29. -34. -42. -48. -58. -61. -65. -68. -71. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.0 119.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##