* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 59 54 49 42 34 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 59 54 49 42 34 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 58 53 48 39 33 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 6 9 7 10 9 8 6 8 12 15 17 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 5 2 0 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 244 216 243 250 266 254 247 232 226 178 189 188 208 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.1 22.8 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.4 21.2 20.8 20.0 20.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 116 111 108 103 89 78 77 75 73 71 67 60 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 58 55 49 48 46 46 41 38 32 30 21 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 21 20 18 16 14 11 10 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 37 48 61 57 38 19 14 -1 -16 -40 -37 -51 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 3 -4 -20 -22 -20 0 -4 -2 -3 16 -2 14 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -5 -5 -1 -2 1 2 1 2 0 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 830 804 790 787 773 737 722 738 775 776 792 761 748 1030 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 25.8 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 29.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.1 118.6 119.1 119.5 120.5 121.3 122.1 122.8 123.4 124.2 125.1 126.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 8 14 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. -39. -44. -50. -54. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -18. -20. -20. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -28. -36. -44. -51. -56. -61. -67. -74. -79. -81. -84. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.1 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 476.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##