* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/09/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 101 98 94 81 70 57 44 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 103 101 98 94 81 70 57 44 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 102 100 95 88 72 58 47 38 32 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 6 9 8 6 12 18 13 35 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 0 3 0 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 125 115 137 162 144 21 291 245 245 244 220 220 217 208 220 217 216 SST (C) 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.5 25.5 24.6 23.6 22.1 21.5 21.4 20.6 20.4 20.7 19.8 20.8 20.3 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 132 129 118 108 97 82 75 74 66 64 66 60 70 62 59 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 64 63 56 56 50 49 45 40 35 31 30 27 24 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 25 27 23 23 20 18 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 21 33 45 38 46 53 67 63 49 37 21 6 -19 -37 -12 -24 -32 200 MB DIV 38 30 34 14 7 -19 -9 -20 -12 -10 6 -12 12 5 22 17 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -9 -1 0 4 3 0 1 3 4 11 6 4 LAND (KM) 901 877 868 844 825 826 838 827 858 915 1010 1098 1133 911 1156 1099 1037 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.8 21.9 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.7 116.4 117.1 117.8 119.1 120.2 121.3 122.4 123.5 124.8 126.3 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 9 12 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -13. -22. -32. -42. -50. -58. -65. -71. -76. -82. -87. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -2. -6. -19. -30. -43. -56. -66. -75. -84. -92. -98.-107.-119.-129. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.3 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.34 -1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 20.3% 16.7% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 7.3% 6.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##