* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/09/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 103 101 97 89 78 63 50 40 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 101 103 101 97 89 78 63 50 40 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 102 103 100 94 80 65 54 43 36 31 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 6 3 2 4 2 3 8 5 5 6 4 24 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -3 3 1 5 2 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 177 132 121 149 166 83 308 299 244 259 289 260 251 227 233 236 230 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.5 24.7 24.1 22.8 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.5 20.4 20.2 21.2 21.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 136 132 129 110 103 89 76 74 71 64 63 63 75 75 67 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -50.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 63 64 60 57 51 49 46 45 39 35 34 26 24 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 26 25 27 26 21 19 17 15 13 10 8 6 5 1 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 38 49 42 48 58 66 51 38 16 7 -24 -21 -25 -25 -42 200 MB DIV 60 49 29 27 17 1 -18 -19 -11 -10 0 -11 0 11 20 -1 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -6 -3 0 -1 1 -1 2 1 6 9 10 4 LAND (KM) 928 892 869 860 834 808 830 806 819 855 914 984 1004 900 1266 1281 1270 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.7 20.2 21.5 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.1 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.0 115.7 116.4 117.0 118.4 119.6 120.7 121.8 122.8 123.8 124.8 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 11 13 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -26. -35. -42. -50. -56. -62. -68. -73. -78. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. -0. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 6. 2. -6. -17. -32. -45. -55. -63. -71. -78. -83. -91. -99.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.6 114.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.9% 26.7% 19.5% 19.3% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.4% 10.4% 8.5% 5.2% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 12.5% 9.4% 8.2% 6.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##