* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 94 100 103 103 97 87 74 59 47 38 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 94 100 103 103 97 87 74 59 47 38 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 94 100 102 99 87 72 59 49 40 33 28 23 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 6 5 1 2 3 5 4 5 4 1 2 17 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -1 0 4 1 0 -1 0 -3 2 0 1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 116 115 134 121 118 131 133 315 291 298 304 333 339 133 195 203 211 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.8 25.4 24.6 23.7 22.3 21.4 21.4 21.0 20.5 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 137 132 117 108 98 83 74 74 69 64 67 69 69 69 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 64 65 61 56 56 51 50 46 42 34 34 28 26 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 27 27 25 24 22 19 16 15 12 11 8 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 28 38 52 40 42 55 48 29 14 4 -15 -16 -19 -33 -46 200 MB DIV 82 78 53 24 23 12 -11 -41 -23 1 -3 3 -15 9 16 15 8 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 0 0 -7 -3 -1 -2 0 2 0 2 6 7 7 4 LAND (KM) 985 938 901 874 860 810 803 816 797 811 855 923 964 897 1202 1214 1184 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.9 19.5 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.7 116.3 117.7 118.9 120.0 121.0 122.0 123.0 124.0 125.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 10 11 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -30. -36. -42. -48. -53. -59. -64. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 18. 18. 12. 2. -11. -26. -38. -47. -57. -63. -70. -76. -85. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 113.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.0% 42.5% 37.9% 36.3% 21.1% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 66.5% 47.9% 44.4% 37.7% 35.0% 9.2% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 41.7% 7.3% 2.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 55.7% 32.6% 28.4% 25.6% 19.0% 9.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##