* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 44 46 49 52 55 58 63 66 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 44 46 49 52 55 58 63 66 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 13 18 17 22 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 0 1 2 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 256 242 257 273 278 289 271 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 138 141 141 138 136 136 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 138 141 140 135 131 128 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 45 44 47 49 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -5 -10 -17 -30 -51 -59 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 30 24 29 22 0 -3 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 10 14 18 5 8 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1153 1145 1020 932 884 558 354 400 425 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.8 19.3 20.8 22.1 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.8 53.6 55.4 57.1 60.5 63.6 66.5 69.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 39 32 36 21 21 28 52 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 38. 41. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 50.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.5% 9.7% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 17.3% 13.8% 4.6% 1.1% 3.6% 3.9% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 11.4% 8.3% 3.7% 0.4% 1.3% 4.6% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 44 46 49 52 55 58 63 66 69 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 36 42 44 47 50 53 56 61 64 67 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 32 38 40 43 46 49 52 57 60 63 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 31 33 36 39 42 45 50 53 56 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT