* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/07/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 34 39 43 47 50 53 57 60 64 66 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 34 39 43 47 50 53 57 60 64 66 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 9 13 16 20 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 1 -3 0 4 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 252 275 255 265 288 284 310 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.7 27.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 136 138 140 141 135 136 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 136 138 140 139 130 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 46 47 47 48 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -7 -7 -10 -22 -42 -52 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 4 29 23 30 25 12 0 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 15 10 11 14 14 6 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1199 1163 1153 1038 946 749 456 356 413 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.6 20.1 21.5 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.9 49.8 51.6 53.4 55.1 58.6 61.8 64.8 67.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 14 38 31 39 23 17 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 32. 35. 39. 41. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 47.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.6% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 28.2% 21.4% 10.9% 4.4% 11.8% 12.0% 22.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 6.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 4.7% 16.7% 11.4% 5.8% 1.5% 4.1% 7.6% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/07/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 30 34 39 43 47 50 53 57 60 64 66 70 71 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 32 37 41 45 48 51 55 58 62 64 68 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 38 42 45 48 52 55 59 61 65 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 30 34 37 40 44 47 51 53 57 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT