* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/07/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 36 39 42 46 50 55 58 61 64 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 36 39 42 46 50 55 58 61 64 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 5 6 13 18 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 1 0 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 166 251 281 265 281 275 300 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 132 133 136 141 139 135 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 132 133 136 141 137 129 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 50 48 47 46 51 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -11 -8 -4 -13 -28 -36 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 3 11 34 25 27 13 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 10 9 7 16 9 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1176 1104 1065 1052 987 812 622 371 339 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.8 18.4 19.9 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.8 47.6 49.5 51.3 53.2 56.7 59.8 62.6 65.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 9 13 25 24 28 24 23 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 14. 17. 21. 25. 30. 33. 36. 39. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 45.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.90 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.2% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 24.0% 18.8% 9.7% 3.6% 8.8% 6.4% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 3.3% 13.8% 9.9% 5.4% 1.2% 3.0% 5.9% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/07/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 33 36 39 42 46 50 55 58 61 64 68 71 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 32 35 38 41 45 49 54 57 60 63 67 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 31 34 37 41 45 50 53 56 59 63 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 24 27 30 34 38 43 46 49 52 56 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT