* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 38 43 48 52 52 54 56 60 65 69 73 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 38 43 48 52 52 54 56 60 65 69 73 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 36 39 42 44 46 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 6 10 14 12 12 18 19 18 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 6 2 -3 0 3 0 0 0 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 340 340 319 312 319 313 312 283 313 293 305 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.4 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 123 128 129 132 137 135 135 133 135 143 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 123 128 129 132 137 133 129 125 126 132 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 59 57 57 56 51 52 53 52 50 52 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -39 -33 -25 -23 -19 -11 -27 -21 -28 -27 -35 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 4 -6 -1 -11 20 32 28 19 1 6 5 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 10 14 14 12 15 14 8 4 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1671 1568 1479 1397 1318 1243 1152 1020 728 543 487 568 595 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.8 17.2 18.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 23.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.9 40.4 42.0 43.8 45.5 49.1 52.6 56.0 59.0 61.6 64.1 66.6 69.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 18 18 18 18 17 15 14 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 11 19 25 13 26 18 31 12 19 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 23. 27. 27. 29. 31. 35. 40. 44. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 38.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.4% 11.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 22.1% 24.8% 23.8% 16.8% 6.2% 15.4% 11.4% 5.9% Bayesian: 4.4% 11.2% 19.2% 0.8% 1.4% 5.9% 6.9% 0.2% Consensus: 11.1% 17.8% 18.1% 8.5% 2.5% 7.1% 9.7% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 34 38 43 48 52 52 54 56 60 65 69 73 73 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 39 44 48 48 50 52 56 61 65 69 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 39 43 43 45 47 51 56 60 64 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 31 35 35 37 39 43 48 52 56 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT