* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 55 51 48 40 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 55 51 48 40 32 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 53 49 45 37 31 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 6 7 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 2 1 0 2 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 291 325 217 203 191 182 167 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.2 22.9 22.8 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 109 107 102 94 90 89 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 65 67 61 59 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 12 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 19 22 16 -10 -19 -25 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 6 8 -3 -12 -10 -11 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 412 383 378 401 448 529 617 733 860 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.2 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.6 111.5 112.5 113.4 115.1 116.8 118.3 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -32. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -25. -32. -41. -48. -52. -54. -56. -57. -57. -58. -59. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.2 109.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##