* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 85 86 86 80 72 60 49 39 31 30 29 29 29 28 27 V (KT) LAND 75 82 85 86 86 80 72 60 49 39 31 30 29 29 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 83 82 79 70 61 52 43 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 7 5 0 2 4 5 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 70 57 51 87 186 188 159 158 160 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.0 26.0 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.8 23.8 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 127 123 123 114 109 103 99 99 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 68 71 65 66 60 59 51 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 16 14 14 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 27 35 31 20 24 10 0 -11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 37 46 23 -11 -2 -5 -12 -17 -17 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -3 -4 -2 -4 -1 0 1 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 260 279 330 386 445 440 476 564 634 732 832 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.1 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.8 107.7 108.6 109.5 111.2 112.8 114.4 115.8 117.3 118.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. -31. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 11. 11. 5. -3. -15. -26. -36. -44. -45. -46. -46. -46. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.4% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 36.2% 22.3% 14.5% 6.5% 5.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.0% 17.2% 4.9% 2.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##