* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042017 06/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 55 65 69 68 63 57 51 46 42 38 39 40 40 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 55 65 69 68 63 57 51 46 42 38 39 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 48 52 60 63 60 54 47 40 34 29 25 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 7 7 6 8 1 3 6 7 8 7 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 0 3 8 3 4 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 12 41 77 75 47 83 282 130 194 197 201 193 161 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.6 27.8 26.6 25.7 24.8 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 161 156 151 142 129 120 110 108 102 98 98 115 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 77 77 74 72 70 66 61 56 50 42 38 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 7 5 8 5 11 38 36 38 12 8 12 19 29 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 58 53 62 55 20 15 -17 0 -20 -17 -20 -34 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -9 0 -4 0 4 6 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 257 253 253 244 238 246 311 417 384 411 492 535 603 1037 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.3 102.3 103.2 104.2 105.9 107.7 109.4 111.1 112.6 114.0 115.2 116.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 12 20 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 18 14 11 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 30. 34. 33. 28. 22. 16. 11. 7. 3. 4. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 100.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 FOUR 06/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 34.6% 25.7% 19.7% 13.8% 22.0% 18.5% 15.8% Logistic: 6.4% 23.1% 12.8% 5.5% 2.8% 11.8% 12.2% 3.7% Bayesian: 3.5% 30.6% 16.3% 5.0% 1.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 29.4% 18.3% 10.1% 6.2% 11.8% 10.4% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 FOUR 06/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##