* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 44 42 36 25 25 25 24 22 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 45 45 38 34 31 28 27 27 28 29 28 27 25 25 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 38 33 30 28 27 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 10 11 11 13 27 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 5 5 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 213 215 205 216 220 227 223 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.7 27.9 28.0 26.0 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 153 148 138 134 138 141 119 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 132 128 119 116 123 128 108 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 6 11 14 8 8 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 52 53 50 56 56 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 18 16 16 15 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 29 1 21 0 -33 -28 3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 53 38 24 25 64 83 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 11 6 -1 23 15 21 -23 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 160 62 -39 -146 -259 -402 -560 -306 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.2 30.1 31.1 32.1 34.0 35.8 37.4 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.5 93.6 93.3 92.9 90.3 85.5 79.6 73.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 12 18 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 18 4 3 3 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -12. -17. -25. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -20. -20. -20. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.3 93.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.9% 9.4% 6.3% 5.4% 8.7% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.0% 3.7% 2.2% 1.8% 3.0% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/22/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 38 34 31 28 27 27 28 29 28 27 25 25 25 25 26 18HR AGO 45 44 37 33 30 27 26 26 27 28 27 26 24 24 24 24 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 34 31 30 30 31 32 31 30 28 28 28 28 29 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 29 28 28 29 30 29 28 26 26 26 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT