* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 44 40 34 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 44 34 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 42 42 40 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 24 22 21 19 11 5 21 37 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 8 0 15 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 233 236 232 211 210 202 202 211 225 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.9 26.9 27.7 27.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 149 149 147 152 135 124 135 138 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 128 128 126 130 116 107 118 121 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 6 10 10 9 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 62 57 54 56 51 54 51 63 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 24 24 21 17 11 13 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 82 67 60 73 19 4 -77 -39 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 135 65 24 51 36 27 50 68 57 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 -2 0 2 6 -3 19 -11 -1 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 381 328 285 254 208 86 -101 -309 -450 -610 -494 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.7 29.0 30.7 32.6 34.5 36.3 38.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.2 91.7 92.2 92.7 93.3 93.2 92.3 89.8 85.7 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 8 9 12 16 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 19 16 16 15 2 1 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -19. -18. -21. -35. -36. -36. -35. -34. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -6. -4. -8. -28. -29. -30. -31. -30. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.7 90.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.4% 9.6% 6.7% 5.8% 8.0% 8.5% 9.1% Logistic: 1.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.9% 3.6% 2.5% 2.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 45 46 44 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 41 31 26 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 36 26 21 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT