* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032017 06/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 44 46 46 46 41 43 42 42 41 41 39 39 38 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 44 46 46 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 38 37 35 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 22 21 27 24 17 15 9 2 7 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 10 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 236 225 229 236 203 228 212 316 216 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.1 27.9 27.0 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 147 148 147 153 135 124 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 125 127 128 126 131 115 106 112 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 7 8 5 10 10 12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 61 57 56 53 56 52 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 25 26 25 24 22 19 13 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 89 103 83 64 73 1 -2 -105 -38 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 82 134 129 43 68 23 22 30 68 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 3 5 4 0 0 7 -2 30 9 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 363 441 381 336 298 217 77 -102 -299 -431 -592 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.6 27.6 29.0 30.7 32.5 34.2 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.9 90.4 90.9 91.3 91.8 92.6 93.0 93.1 92.4 91.0 89.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 20 20 20 16 15 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -5. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.5 89.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.7% 6.8% 4.5% 3.6% 6.2% 6.3% 8.8% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.0% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 THREE 06/20/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 44 46 46 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 41 43 43 32 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 37 37 26 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT